Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity between the two parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.

Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path in this instance as each side – as well as the President – can see some merit in digging in.

Here are the four ways that make this shutdown distinct currently.

1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues

Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.

Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure in the spring. Now he's digging in.

This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.

Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.

Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.

Additionally, they're attempting to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.

Second, For Republicans, they see potential

The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.

The President himself stated recently that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".

The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.

The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust between both parties

While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.

Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions continued over the weekend, as both sides exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.

House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".

Simultaneously, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.

The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, where the legislator appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.

The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.

4. The US economy faces vulnerability

Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity tied to business cease functioning.

The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.

This might explain partially why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.

On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.

Samantha Robinson
Samantha Robinson

A passionate weaver and textile artist with over 15 years of experience, sharing creative projects and techniques.

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